Forecast Of Future Additional Polysilicon Production Capacity

According to the estimation, the global photovoltaic installed capacity will be 460GW (neutral) in 2024, and the required silicon material will be about 1.66 million tons. According to the current capacity increase, the silicon material capacity will reach 3.31 million tons by the end of 2024, of which the output is expected to be 2.05 million tons, with an overall surplus of 390,000 tons. In the first half of 2024, China's polysilicon production was 1.06 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 63.2%; according to the changes in the current industrial structure and the production plan for future production capacity, in the second half of this year, under the negative feedback of the industry and the adjustment of the industrial structure, according to the estimation, the polysilicon production in the third and fourth quarters will be about 470,000 and 480,000 tons, and the demand for industrial silicon will be about 550,000 tons, up 28% and 2.13% year-on-year respectively. It is estimated that China's polysilicon production in 2024 will be about 1.85 million tons.

So far, the price of many types of silicon has been running at the bottom, but due to the disturbance on the cost side and the suppression of high inventory in the downstream, it is difficult to put new ones into production. Secondly, we need to target the new capacity production ratio of the entire industrial chain from the terminal. According to the cycle of new capacity to achieve production, the time ratio of the raw material factory is close to 0.5/1-1/2, with a time mismatch gap. Then, under the condition of low utilization rate of terminal installed capacity, there will still be a surplus situation after the new capacity is put into production. Entering the capacity reorganization stage after the red ocean boom, the contradiction of overcapacity will intensify, and it will also drive down the price of silicon materials. It is worth noting that small and medium-sized enterprises are currently burdened with heavy costs. After the industry's profits shrink, the rhythm of production will be affected and there is uncertainty. It is expected that high-cost production capacity will face elimination, and industry clearance will continue until 2025.

During the traditional off-season, the production enthusiasm of enterprises may be affected to a certain extent, and the release of new capacity may slow down. On the one hand, enterprises may adjust production plans according to market demand to avoid overproduction when demand is insufficient; on the other hand, factors such as winter climate conditions may also have a certain impact on the operation and maintenance of production equipment, thereby affecting the release of capacity.