Summary Of The Discussion Among Experts On Photovoltaic Demand In The United States

The inventory of photovoltaic modules imported into the United States before June needs to be installed before December 3, resulting in severe price fluctuations in the market. The price of modules imported before June dropped from US$0.22-0.23/W to US$0.10/W, while the price of modules that meet US supply chain requirements remained at US$0.24-0.26/W. The price difference between distributed and ground power station components is not big. The price of ground power station components is US$0.22-0.23 per watt, and the price of local production capacity components is US$0.28 per watt. Runyang and other companies have sharply cut prices and sold products due to heavy inventory pressure. Ground power plant developer activity increased significantly, while the residential distributed market was less resilient.

American residents have high requirements for the quality and service of PV modules. The Samba modules have lost market trust due to quality issues. The results of the Southeast Asian anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigation will be announced in November. If the tax rate exceeds 30%, it will affect the export competitiveness of modules in the four Southeast Asian countries. At present, the module price in Indonesia, Laos and other places is 0.23-0.25 US dollars/W, but the production capacity is not enough to meet the demand of the U.S. market. Zhongrui and other companies have built factories in Laos and Indonesia, but it is expected that the U.S. market may still face tight supply of battery cells next year.

The U.S. government increased the quota for imported cells from 5GW to 15GW, which will help ease supply pressure. Canadian Solar has outstanding performance in the U.S. photovoltaic market and has a strong developer background and local production facilities. The demand for energy storage is growing rapidly, especially the energy storage supporting photovoltaic projects. Generally, a 100 MW power station is equipped with 300 MWh of energy storage. Canadian Solar also has a significant presence in the energy storage field, and its market advantage is expected to be further enhanced.

The photovoltaic module market is undergoing a transformation from PERC to Topcon. The price of P-type modules has dropped significantly due to inventory clearance, while Topcon modules are mainly supplied by first-tier brands due to quality and patent issues. The progress of production expansion in the United States by companies such as Trina Solar and JA Solar varies, but US-listed companies such as JinkoSolar and Canadian Solar are expected to receive US subsidies. The brand requirements of the energy storage market have increased, and second- and third-tier brands have gradually emerged, squeezing the market share of first-tier brands. The demand in the US photovoltaic market has changed. Ground power station projects are mainly Topcon, but HJT has not yet been popularized due to its high price.

The US market has increased demand for components above 700 watts, but there are doubts about the quality of large components. The main demand is still concentrated on 400 watt components. The bracket market is monopolized by several large manufacturers, and prices remain high, with huge profits. The US government policy supports domestic manufacturing and restricts imported brackets. It is expected that the installed capacity and popularity of photovoltaics in the United States will continue to rise, with component prices of about 25 cents/watt and power station yields of 6%-8%.

Many states in the north-central United States, such as Wisconsin, Illinois, and Minnesota, have provided high local government subsidies, making the internal rate of return of building photovoltaic power stations in these areas as high as 8%. Even in the northeastern region with poor lighting conditions, both Cost recovery within the year. In addition, New Jersey, Maryland, New York and other states also provide strong support to the photovoltaic industry. At present, in addition to major domestic manufacturers in the United States and domestic companies such as Longi Jinko and Canadian Solar, there are also many Chinese companies building factories in the United States to focus on the U.S. market, including Elite, SonewEast, Emperor, Star, etc. Although battery production capacity in the United States is currently relatively scarce, a Chinese manufacturer is expected to start producing batteries next month, and the market prospects are promising.

The price of cells from small factories in the U.S. market is about $0.27-0.28 per watt, while the price of modules is $0.43 per watt. The modules produced by large factories such as Canadian Solar in the U.S. can only be called UINUSA, and their cells are purchased from outside, so the cost is relatively high. At present, the lowest OEM fee of U.S. module factories is $0.13 per watt, and after adding the brand OEM fee, the total cost is about $0.15 per watt. The overall price of photovoltaic modules is on a downward trend, and currently fluctuates between $0.9-1.2 per watt.

In the US market, brands may choose third-party OEM production while retaining their own brand logo. For example, some brands may be processed in Indonesia or the United States, but the final product is still labeled with the brand's logo. This model is used in different countries and regions to meet the specific needs of customers.