The mystery of Pakistan's solar panels
There is a huge gap between the total amount of photovoltaic panels imported by Pakistan and the actual amount of grid-connected installations. According to businessrecorder, from 2020 to 2024, Pakistan imported a total of about 27GW of photovoltaic panels, but at the end of the 2023-2024 fiscal year, the grid-connected capacity was about 3GW, and the whereabouts of the remaining 24GW components remained a mystery. The possible reasons are as follows:
The time difference between installation and grid connection: Pakistan's installed capacity demand is supported by large-scale centralized projects, and the process from planning to grid connection is complicated. Power stations that install imported photovoltaic panels may not be connected to the grid within the prescribed period and cannot be included in the current installed capacity statistics.
Uncounted residential installations: High electricity prices and unstable power supply stimulate residents to install photovoltaic systems on their own, and there are Class B and inferior photovoltaic panels on the market. They are popular with some residents due to their low installation costs. This part of the capacity is not reflected in the grid-connected data.
Inventory factors: In order to ensure the stability of the supply chain, companies and dealers will reserve a certain amount of normal inventory. In addition, the Pakistani government is considering imposing taxes on imported solar panels, and project companies and photovoltaic companies are "stocking up" in advance.
There is a huge gap between Pakistan's installed PV capacity and imported PV capacity. In addition to the time difference between installation and grid connection, uncounted residential installations, and inventory factors mentioned above, there are also the following reasons:
Statistical caliber differences: The official installed capacity may only cover large-scale PV projects that are included in the unified management of the power grid and meet specific standards or scales, while a large number of small distributed PV systems, such as PV facilities installed on roofs and other locations by residents and small businesses, may not be fully included in the statistical scope. In addition, different institutions may have different statistical methods and data sources for imports and installed capacity, which further amplifies the gap in data.
Market expectations and investment promotion: Investors and companies import a large number of PV modules in advance based on good expectations for the future of Pakistan's PV market. On the one hand, the government's support policy for renewable energy and the general trend of energy transformation have made market participants believe that PV has broad development prospects in Pakistan, so they have arranged reserve modules in advance. On the other hand, the international emphasis on clean energy and the inflow of related funds have also prompted companies to actively import modules and prepare to share a share of Pakistan's PV market, which has led to a rapid increase in imports in the short term, exceeding the current actual installed capacity demand.
Problems in logistics and supply chain: Pakistan's logistics and infrastructure may have certain limitations, resulting in delays or backlogs in the transportation, storage and distribution of photovoltaic modules. Some modules may be stranded in ports, warehouses and other places, and have not yet arrived at the installation site for installation in time, resulting in a gap between imports and installed capacity.
Difficulty in project implementation: Although Pakistan has a demand for photovoltaic development, it may face difficulties in land acquisition, strict environmental assessment requirements, and limited local construction forces and technical levels during the project implementation process, which affects the construction progress of photovoltaic projects and prevents imported modules from being converted into actual installed capacity in a timely manner.