Photovoltaic Market Outlook In July 2024

In 2024, the global economy will continue to grow, and the economic growth rate of major economies will remain above 3%. With the rapid development of high-tech industries such as electronics and semiconductors, the demand for industrial silicon will continue to grow. At the same time, the development of environmental protection, new energy and other fields will also drive huge demand for industrial silicon.

China's industrial silicon prices will gradually recover in 2024. And with the global economy and the huge demand for environmental protection, new energy and other fields, China's industrial silicon industry will face more opportunities. However, the rise of international trade protectionism may also put pressure on China's industrial silicon exports.

The gap between the supply and demand of industrial silicon fundamentals has further widened. On the supply side, under the low electricity price during the flood season, the profit situation in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places has improved, stimulating the increase in start-up. On the demand side, a certain aluminum rod enterprise stopped production for maintenance, which had a great impact on the demand for industrial silicon. It is expected that industrial silicon will continue the trend of substantial inventory accumulation in July, and the spot price will continue to fall.

In the domestic market, the Chinese government is vigorously promoting clean energy policies, and solar power generation has also become a key area of ​​national support. In recent years, the production capacity of Chinese solar energy enterprises has been continuously improved, and the construction of new solar power stations has also been continuously expanded. These will drive the growth of demand for solar silicon materials and promote the stability of market prices.

In the international market, governments and enterprises of various countries are also actively promoting solar power generation. In particular, countries such as the European Union and India have increased their investment in solar energy in terms of energy transformation. The continuous expansion of the market in these countries will also further promote the development of the solar silicon material market.

In July, the start-up of silicon material enterprises increased and decreased, and the overall output is expected to rebound slightly. In terms of demand, the production schedule of silicon wafers remained the same or increased slightly. Overall, there was no significant change in the fundamentals month-on-month, and the inventory will return to more than 300,000 tons. It is expected that the price of silicon materials will continue to fall slowly in July.

Some companies have good destocking, and the start-up of large factories is basically the same or even slightly increased. On the demand side, the cost inversion of the battery cell link has lasted for a long time, and the downstream demand is sluggish. The probability of battery companies continuing to reduce production is high, and the demand for silicon wafers is difficult to improve. In July, the supply and demand of silicon wafers was roughly balanced, and the price is expected to remain stable.

From the perspective of market supply, the current solar wafer market has gradually achieved a balance between supply and demand. At present, the total production capacity of solar wafers in the world has exceeded the demand, so the supply of solar wafers is sufficient. On the other hand, the price of solar wafers is still at a low level in both domestic and foreign markets, which means that the market competition is fierce and that the solar wafer industry is still in the growth stage.

The fundamentals maintain a weak supply and demand and oversupply pattern, and the inventory pressure in the cell segment is difficult to ease in the short term. There are many uncertain factors in downstream demand. If demand collapses in the short term, there is still a possibility of price decline for cells. It is expected that the price of cells will be weak and stable in July.

The operating rate of modules in July is still expected to be slightly lowered, and the overall production is determined by sales. The overseas off-season is approaching; the domestic market is affected by the decline in supply chain prices, and the wait-and-see sentiment of terminal centralized projects has become stronger, and the pace of procurement has slowed down; the market has temporarily suspended the planning of new distributed projects, and the pace of grid connection of projects under construction has accelerated, and the overall demand is limited. It is expected that the price of modules will still fall in July.

Competition in the solar module market will be more intense. In the field of solar power generation worldwide, many countries have developed their own solar module manufacturing industry. Many companies have developed competitive solar modules, and these companies are practicing technological innovation and cost reduction strategies. The fierce international competition will further promote the development of the solar module market and promote the explosive growth of the solar module market in the next few years.

The global demand for solar modules will rise again. In the past few years, the cost of solar power generation has been reduced to an extremely low level, which has also promoted the popularization and application of solar energy systems. Industry experts predict that developing countries will become the main market for solar power generation in the next few years, not only because many countries are striving to achieve energy self-sufficiency, but also because the smaller investment required for solar energy systems can bring new economic development models to economically weak countries. In general, the prospects for solar power generation are quite promising.