The Current Situation Of China's PV Main Materials And The Production Plan At The End Of The Year

December Production Schedule And Reasons:

The expected production schedule for polysilicon in December is 94,600 tons, a significant decrease from 111,000 tons in November. The main reason is that the leading polysilicon companies have reduced production in Sichuan and Yunnan, and two second- and third-tier small companies have stopped working.

Future Production Forecast:

It is expected that granular silicon will be reduced in December. The Sichuan base has reduced its Leshan capacity in December due to high electricity prices. In January 25, it may further reduce production and even shut down. In addition, small companies may be further shut down, but the impact is limited. It is expected that the leading companies will shut down all their production capacity in southern Sichuan in January, bringing about a part of the reduction.

Price Trend And Reasons:

The historical inventory pressure of polysilicon is large. The inventory has reached 290,000 tons at the end of October. Therefore, the price is unlikely to rise in December, but it will not continue to fall. The signing rhythm in November shows that the seller company has won a small victory and maintained the price bottom line. In addition, it needs to destock in December. At the same time, the sharp price cut is inconsistent with the spirit advocated by the association.

Production Schedule And Inventory In December:

The output of silicon wafers in December is expected to be 42GW. Polysilicon is in the process of destocking in December, but the inventory pressure is still large, and the price increase of polysilicon in December is not optimistic.

The output of silicon wafers in November was 40.03GW, and it will rise slightly against the trend to around 42.5GW in December. The two leading companies have increased production, and the production increase steps of specialized companies are larger. The inventory of silicon wafers is healthy. As of November 30, the inventory of silicon wafers in satellite statistics is only 27GW, and the inventory of leading specialized companies accounts for 10GW, and most of them are Class B wafers. Other specialized companies have very little inventory.

Production Forecast For January And February 25:

Battery production in December is expected to continue to reduce the inventory of silicon wafers. If the market sentiment is good, the inventory of silicon wafers is expected to drop to around 20GW. It is expected that the production of silicon wafers will further increase to 45-47GW in January and February next year: Although January is the Spring Festival, the production of silicon wafers is expected to increase, mainly due to the balance of supply and demand in December.

Price and Inventory:

Cells are the best-performing of the four links and have risen first. The price of 183mm cells has risen to RMB 0.28 and has been confirmed. The inventory of each cell is close to zero. The inventory of specialized manufacturers is mostly around 1GW, and many are below 1GW.

Production Schedule In December:

Global battery production will reach 50.8GW in December, and domestic production plans will reach around 47.8GW. Specialized leading enterprises such as some enterprises in Yibin, Sichuan will reach full production, and the overall order delivery situation is good. In December, there is a certain potential for cell and silicon wafers to continue to rise.

Production Forecast For January 25:

Compared with December, cell production is not very suitable in January. The pace of production reduction of components in the later period is likely to be maintained. Production reduction steps have already appeared in December, and battery inventory should not be stored for a long time. It may decline slightly in January to match the production schedule of silicon wafers. In addition, there may be a production reduction agreement signed between the leading cell companies and the association at the Yibin meeting, and the overall production schedule of cells may decline.

Price And Production Schedule:

After the October meeting, the bidding price of components rushed towards 0.68RMB/W, but the delivery price did not return to 0.68RMB/W, still just above 0.6RMB/W.

In December, the production of components is expected to drop to 45GW if it is more aggressive, and 45-47GW if it is more objective. The leading companies will reduce production in December to reduce inventory. There is a certain pressure on the inventory of components, which will remain at around 53.4GW.

Price Increase Forecast:

In December and January 2025, there is a high probability that the components will rise. In addition to the market of battery cells and silicon wafers, the price of glass was officially announced to increase on November 28, and the price of film also increased. With the support of batteries and auxiliary materials and high delivery volume in December, the probability of component price increase is relatively high.

Glass:

The price increase of 3.2 single-layer coated glass on the basis of 21RMB is expected to return to the previous level, but no actual transaction has been achieved in the market.

The main reason for the price increase of glass is that there was maintenance before, and the module factory gave a large order in late November or December. At the same time, the module production was active, which consumed the glass raw material inventory, and the manufacturer believed that the price of auxiliary materials had reached a low level and the purchase volume increased.

Film:

EVA has increased by 700RMB in the past month, affecting the cost by about 0.3RMB, but the price increase of film will not be large, and it is difficult to cover the previous raw material increase. Photovoltaic factories will bear part of the situation caused by the price increase of upstream raw materials. The logic of the price increase of film is based on the overall market sentiment change. As long as the terminal or module demand exceeds expectations, it will support the increase in the price of low-level auxiliary materials.

Cooperation Degree Of Battery Link:

Based on the signature as the standard, the battery link may be faster in industry self-discipline. The association has set the tone for next year's production reduction, which may be related to production capacity and shipments in the previous year. It will give certain policy disadvantages to backward production capacity. The coefficient formulation of each link may change. At present, it is only a preliminary plan, not finalized.

Capacity Reduction Policy:

To solve the problems of 25 years and beyond, two directions of quota and energy consumption control are proposed. Energy consumption control can eliminate backward production capacity. When making quotas, the coefficient tendency for high-quality production capacity will be considered. Backward production capacity may be closed by itself due to insufficient share.

Policy Regulation:

At present, industry self-discipline is mainly coordinated and regulated by associations, and the National Development and Reform Commission supports industry self-discipline. At this stage, it is difficult to have a one-size-fits-all or tough policy. In December, the association will still play a coordinating role. For energy consumption control, although there are relevant policies to limit the energy consumption of new and existing stocks, and the standards formulated are relatively mild, the attitudes of enterprises towards the policies are not the same. The relevant agreements still need to wait for further news from the association.