The 2024 Photovoltaic Cell Shipment Rankings Are Reshuffled. What Industry Trends Are Revealed?

On the evening of February 17, InfoLink Consulting released the 2024 annual cell shipment rankings. The top five are Tongwei Co., Ltd., Zhongrun Photovoltaic, Jietai Technology, Yingfa Ruineng, and Aixu Co., Ltd. Compared with 2023, except for Tongwei Co., Ltd., the 2nd to 5th positions have changed. The total global shipments of the top five cell suppliers in 2024 were 162.8GW, a year-on-year decline of about 10.7%, ending the trend of rapid growth in the past few years. Among them, the cumulative shipments of traditional PERC cells were about 53.5GW; the new generation of technology TOPcon cells accelerated to catch up, with cumulative shipments reaching 109.3GW, accounting for 67% of the total shipments.

This ranking change reveals several important trends in the development of the current photovoltaic cell industry.

TOPCon technology has become a key variable in the cell market in 2024. Among the total cell shipments of the top five companies last year, TOPCon accounted for 67%, with a cumulative shipment of 109.3GW. Under the general trend of the industry's transformation to N-type technology, companies using TOPCon technology have obvious market advantages.

Jietai Technology has become one of the preferred brands for overseas customers by quickly deploying TOPCon technology, and the shipment share of N-type batteries is close to 90%, which is undoubtedly an important reason for its rising ranking. Yingfa Ruineng has also seized the opportunity of technological iteration. In 2023, Yingfa Ruineng's Yibin base high-efficiency TOPCon battery project will be launched on a large scale, and the company's cell production capacity is expected to reach 27GW by 2024. In addition, it is reported that Yingfa Ruineng's cell production capacity will reach 31GW in 2024, which has promoted the leap in the company's shipments, entering the top five for the first time and ranking fourth.

However, Aixu shares still mainly focus on PERC products and failed to switch to TOPCon technology on a large scale in a timely manner, resulting in a decline in shipments and a drop in ranking from second to fifth. Although Aixu has achieved certain results in the BC technology route, its BC cells are mainly used in its own component products, which are not included in the external battery shipment data, and also affect the ranking to a certain extent. This also shows that at the moment when photovoltaic technology is rapidly updated, the follow-up speed and mass production capacity of enterprises for new technologies are directly related to the gains and losses of market share.

The expansion of overseas markets has become an important factor in the changes in corporate rankings. Zhongrun Optoelectronics has achieved remarkable results in overseas market layout. Since 2023, it has deployed a total of 9GW of cell cells and 3GW of component production capacity in Laos, effectively circumventing the "double anti-dumping" trade barriers imposed by the United States on the photovoltaic production capacity of the four Southeast Asian countries, thus selling well in the US market and maintaining its leading position. In 2024, its shipment ranking rose to second place.

Junda Co., Ltd., the parent company of Jietai Technology, signed an investment intention for a 10GW high-efficiency photovoltaic cell project with the Oman Investment Authority, and is expected to further expand its international market share in the future. Yingfa Ruineng established an Indonesian base and plans to invest 2 billion yuan to build a high-efficiency crystalline silicon battery project with an annual output of 5GW. It is also preparing to expand overseas markets. With the growing demand in the global photovoltaic market and the rise of trade protectionism in some regions, the early layout of overseas production bases and close to the target market can not only reduce transportation costs, but also avoid trade risks, becoming an important means for enterprises to enhance their competitiveness.

The internal business adjustments of enterprises have also had a significant impact on the ranking of battery cell shipments. Tongwei Co., Ltd. carried out PERC project transformation on multiple base production lines in the first half of 2024. In addition, the proportion of self-use was increased to 60-70%, which caused fluctuations in the shipment ranking in the first half of the year. However, after the transformation of 38GW PERC production capacity was completed, the new TNC battery production capacity of 16GW in Meishan and the TNC production capacity of 25GW in Shuangliu were put into production one after another, making the scale of Tongwei TNC battery production capacity exceed 100GW by the end of 2024, thereby driving the increase in its own battery shipments in the second half of the year, and finally ranking first throughout the year.

Aixu's business focus is on the component side, and BC batteries have not yet been sold separately to the market, resulting in a decline in its battery cell shipments. However, Aixu has achieved certain results in the component business. Survey data show that Aixu's component shipments in 2024 will be around 6.3GW. As a leading company in the BC technology route, it has once again set a new record for component shipments. This shows that the company's strategic choice in the photovoltaic industry chain, whether to focus on battery cell production or to develop upstream and downstream integration, will have a direct impact on the battery cell shipment ranking.

From the overall shipment decline of 10.7%, it can be seen that the photovoltaic battery industry in 2024 is struggling under the shadow of oversupply. The rapid expansion of high-efficiency battery production capacity has further exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand, and the price war continues to escalate. The price of TOPCon battery cells has dropped from 0.47 yuan per watt at the beginning of the year to 0.28 yuan at the end of December, a drop of 40%. Under cost pressure and upstream and downstream price squeeze, battery companies are all struggling on the edge of profit and loss, and even the leading companies in the industry are not having an easy time.

However, as the self-discipline mechanism of the photovoltaic industry gradually takes shape, under the leadership of the association, the capacity self-discipline mechanism among enterprises has begun to be established, and production quota restrictions in various links have been introduced one after another, which has also constrained the new capacity. In the future, the situation of oversupply is expected to usher in a turnaround, and the imbalance between market supply and demand will also begin to move towards repair. In 2025, with the gradual increase in demand, the price of battery cells is expected to be repaired, and the industry is expected to usher in new development opportunities.

The change in the ranking of photovoltaic battery cell shipments in 2024 is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors such as technology, market, and corporate strategy. For photovoltaic companies, continuous investment in technology research and development, reasonable layout of overseas markets, and formulation of correct business strategies based on their own advantages can occupy a favorable position in future market competition. The entire industry also needs to continue to work hard in capacity regulation, technological innovation, etc. to achieve healthy and sustainable development.