Recent Trends In The PV Industry
With The Increase In Policy Regulation, The Photovoltaic Industry's "Anti-Involution" Has Entered The Deep Water Zone
China's domestic policy combination
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China held the 15th manufacturing enterprise symposium on July 3, clearly proposing "comprehensive governance of low-price disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry in accordance with laws and regulations", and requiring the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. This policy orientation was quickly reflected in the capital market. The main contract of polysilicon futures broke through 42,000 yuan/ton on July 11, an increase of more than 30% from the bottom in June, and signs of stabilization of prices in the industrial chain began to appear. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange simultaneously adjusted the trading rules of polysilicon futures, expanding the price limit from 7% to 9%, and increasing the speculative margin to 11% to cope with market fluctuations.
International policy game intensifies
The "Big and Beautiful Act" passed by the United States on July 1 has had an impact on the photovoltaic industry. The original 30% investment tax credit (ITC) policy was canceled ahead of schedule, the credit for residential photovoltaic projects will end at the end of 2025, and the credit for utility projects will be extended to the end of 2027. This policy directly led to the rise of the US solar sector on July 2, with JinkoSolar (JKS.US) rising by more than 11% in a single day, and the market's expectations for the policy buffer period have been revised. The European Union introduced new regulations in May, requiring that 30% of photovoltaic modules must be "made in Europe" from 2026, and the compliance costs of Chinese companies exporting to the European market will increase significantly.
Technological Breakthroughs Are Accelerating, And The Commercialization Of Perovskites Has Reached a Critical Point
Perovskite technology iteration breakthrough
The perovskite quantum dot stacked cell patent applied by Xiamen University and Shenzhen Heijing Optoelectronics on July 5 broadens the absorption spectrum to the near-infrared band through a stacked structure, and the theoretical efficiency is increased to more than 35%. GCL-Poly's Gigawatt-level perovskite industrial base was put into production on June 24. Its 1.2m × 2.4m large-size module mass production efficiency reached 29.51%, and passed the German TÜV Rheinland 3x IEC stability test, marking that perovskite has officially entered the GW-level mass production stage. Trina Solar's laboratory perovskite/crystalline silicon stacked module efficiency exceeded 30.6%, becoming the world's first company to achieve this goal.
Crystalline silicon technology upgrade in parallel
Longi Green Energy's HPBC 2.0 module shipments grew rapidly in the first half of 2025, with unit costs down 12% from the previous generation, driving the company's second-quarter losses to narrow month-on-month. Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s TOPCon cell bifaciality rate reached 94.3%, and the module power was 722W, setting a new industry record. JA Solar's Shanghai laboratory received the world's first cell power measurement uncertainty certificate from TÜV Rheinland, with an accuracy control of less than 2%, consolidating its competitiveness in the high-end market.
Market Differentiation Intensifies, And Strategic Adjustments Of Leading Enterprises Are Effective
Performance differentiation is significant
In the first half of 2025, photovoltaic enterprises presented a "two-faced situation": Tongwei Co., Ltd. had a net loss of 4.9-5.2 billion yuan, TCL Zhonghuan had a loss of 4.0-4.5 billion yuan, and JA Solar had a loss of 2.5-3 billion yuan, with the loss margin expanding by more than 50% year-on-year; while Longi Green Energy reduced losses through the expansion of HPBC 2.0, with a net loss of 2.4-2.8 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a decrease of 50% over the same period last year. Aixu Co., Ltd. turned losses into profits in the second quarter thanks to the high gross profit performance of ABC modules in the European and Australian markets.
Capacity strategic transformation
Leading enterprises accelerated the clearance of backward production capacity: JinkoSolar's capital expenditure in 2025 was compressed to 4 billion yuan, focusing on upgrading the TOPCon 3.0 production line; Trina Solar suspended large-scale expansion and focused on 20 billion yuan in cash reserves to cope with cyclical fluctuations. Relying on the technological reserves of its controlling shareholder, GCL-Poly Integration plans to achieve mass production of 1.2m×2.4m commercial modules by 2025 to seize the first-mover advantage in perovskite.