China's Photovoltaic Module Market Price Differentiation Intensifies

In March 2025, China's photovoltaic module market showed a significant differentiation trend. According to the OPIS benchmark assessment, the FOB price of TOPCon modules rose by 1.14% for the fifth consecutive week, closing at US$0.089/W (approximately RMB 0.63/W), and the quotation range expanded to US$0.085-0.093/W; while the price of PERC modules remained stable, with an average FOB price of US$0.085/W, and market transactions concentrated in the range of US$0.082-0.088/W. This price fluctuation marks that the photovoltaic industry has entered a new cycle under the dual effects of policy drive and technological iteration.

The core driving force behind the price increase comes from the "rush to install" in the domestic distributed photovoltaic market. According to the policy requirements of the National Energy Administration, industrial and commercial distributed projects connected to the grid before April 30 can retain full grid subsidies, while new projects put into production after May 31 must go through market-based bidding transactions. Stimulated by the policy window period, project parties accelerated construction, driving the production of components in April to increase by more than 30% month-on-month to 55-56GW. Among them, TOPCon components have a penetration rate of over 60% in the distributed market due to their advantages such as high conversion efficiency and low attenuation rate, becoming the main force of this round of demand explosion.

From the perspective of supply chain transmission, TOPCon's specific demand for G12R silicon wafers has led to tight supply of products of this specification, with a weekly price increase of 3.91%. In the battery cell segment, the transaction price of G12R monocrystalline TOPCon batteries jumped from CNY 0.27/W to CNY 0.31/W, an increase of 14.8%. In the component segment, the average price of distributed TOPCon components exceeded CNY 0.75/W, and the price of some models approached CNY 0.8/W, reaching a new high in the past six months. However, due to the pressure of overcapacity, the price of PERC components remained low, mainly serving centralized power stations and overseas markets.

Behind the market differentiation, the photovoltaic industry is experiencing a dual game of technology and cost. TOPCon components have a dominant position in the rush to install with their mass production maturity and cost advantages; while HJT components are still difficult to replace on a large scale in the short term due to their high costs (average price CNY 0.86/W). The difference in corporate strategies is also significant: JA Solar took the lead in seizing the market through two price increases (cumulative increase of CNY 0.03-0.04/W), while leading companies such as Longi Green Energy and Trina Solar adopted a "tentative increase" strategy, and the quotation range gradually narrowed to CNY 0.66-0.76/W. This differentiation stems from the companies' trade-off between cash flow and market share: JA Solar paid more attention to profit recovery after a huge loss of CNY 4.86 billion in 2024; while other companies tried to stabilize industry expectations through price linkage.

Regional market performance is also uneven. Domestic distributed projects are "overheated" due to policy stimulus, and component prices have exceeded CNY 0.8/W in the short term, while centralized projects still maintain a rational range of 0.69/W due to yield pressure. Overseas markets show signs of recovery: European component prices have rebounded, and India's import demand has surged due to insufficient local supply, further exacerbating the tension in the global supply chain.

In the short term, the price of the photovoltaic industry chain will still be affected by the policy window period. TrendForce predicts that silicon material demand will further rise in April, and prices may exceed CNY 45/kg; silicon wafers may increase by 3.5% due to tight supply and demand of 210R-N products; cell prices are transmitted with module demand, and G12R TOPCon models increased by 6.67% month-on-month. Module prices may reach a peak in May, and the average price of distributed projects is expected to hit CNY 0.85/W, but we need to be vigilant about the risk of project delays caused by cost pressure in the downstream.

In the medium and long term, the photovoltaic industry will face multiple challenges. First, after the policy dividend fades, whether demand can continue is the key. After June, distributed projects will fully enter market-based bidding, and the complexity of yield calculation will increase, which may suppress some installation demand. Secondly, the risk of overcapacity still exists. Although silicon materials and silicon wafers have alleviated supply pressure in the short term through self-discipline and regulation, the annual production capacity still exceeds demand by 30%. If demand is lower than expected, prices may be under pressure again. In addition, with the acceleration of technology route iteration, the competition between TOPCon and HJT will shift to large-scale cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and the industrialization process of new technologies such as BC and perovskite will also affect the industry landscape.

This round of price increases in the photovoltaic market in 2025 is essentially the result of the joint action of policy drive and technology upgrade. The price increase of TOPCon components is not only the market's recognition of high-efficiency technology, but also a short-term manifestation of the mismatch between supply and demand in the industrial chain. For enterprises, it is necessary to find a balance between short-term profits and long-term layout, and accelerate global layout and technological innovation; for investors, it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of policy implementation, the progress of capacity clearance and the evolution direction of technology routes. As the photovoltaic industry gradually shifts from a "policy market" to a "market market", rational pricing and technological breakthroughs will become the core driving force for the healthy development of the industry.