Structural Adjustment Of China's Photovoltaic Module Export Market

At the beginning of 2025, China's photovoltaic module export market ushered in significant changes. Customs data showed that the total module export volume in January-February reached 38.52GW, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, but the outstanding performance of emerging markets injected new momentum into the industry: Pakistan and Brazil's monthly exports exceeded 1.60GW and 1.10GW respectively, and the export volume of the African market surged by 44% year-on-year.

At the same time, the European market was affected by tariff policies and local production capacity substitution, and the export volume plummeted by 43.2% year-on-year. The share of traditional main markets such as the Netherlands and Spain declined, while the demand in Portugal, Greece and other countries grew against the trend. This "ice and fire" pattern reflects the active adjustment and strategic transformation of China's photovoltaic industry in the reconstruction of the global supply chain.

As the traditional core market for China's photovoltaic modules, the European Union has long occupied more than 40% of the export share. However, since 2024, the European Union has accelerated the protection of local production capacity by raising tariffs and strengthening carbon footprint certification.

Data shows that in 2024, China's module exports to the EU fell by 43.2% year-on-year, and imports from the Netherlands, Spain and other countries decreased significantly. However, it is worth noting that demand in southern European countries such as Portugal and Greece has grown against the trend, mainly due to the promotion of their distributed photovoltaic policies and economic choices under high energy prices.

This shows that Chinese companies are looking for new breakthroughs in the European market through differentiated competition strategies, such as providing customized solutions and strengthening localized cooperation.

Faced with the uncertainty of the European and American markets, Chinese photovoltaic companies are accelerating the development of emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa.

In 2024, the export volume of modules in the Asian market increased by 38.6% year-on-year, and Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and other countries became new growth points due to the surge in demand for energy transformation; the growth rate of the African market was particularly prominent, with exports in January-February 2025 increasing by 44% year-on-year, and large-scale photovoltaic project bidding in South Africa, Egypt and other countries continued to land.

Latin America is centered on Brazil, whose distributed photovoltaic market has strong demand, coupled with policy support, and has become a stable growth pole for China's module exports. The rise of these markets not only eases the pressure of traditional market fluctuations, but also marks the transformation of China's photovoltaic industry from "single dependence" to "multi-polar support".

Behind the market adjustment, technological innovation and supply chain optimization have become the core competitiveness of Chinese photovoltaic companies. In 2024, N-type modules accounted for more than 60% of the overseas market, and their higher power generation efficiency and lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) have become a "weapon" to open up emerging markets.

At the same time, Chinese companies are accelerating the global production capacity layout and building integrated production bases in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other places, which not only avoids trade barriers but also gets close to the terminal market. For example, leading companies such as Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar have extended the production capacity of silicon wafers and battery cells overseas by building factories overseas, forming a "domestic + overseas" dual-circulation supply chain system, and further consolidating global market share.

Global installed capacity growth slows down and emerging markets rise

Institutions predict that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will be 531-596GW in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6%-10%, and the growth rate has slowed significantly compared with the previous five years. The share of mainstream markets in China, Europe and the United States has dropped to 71.6%, with Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa contributing the main growth. China's new installed capacity is expected to be 215-255GW, with centralized projects accounting for more than 60%, and household photovoltaics are weak due to grid restrictions.

Industry chain "involution" and technology iteration pressure

China's photovoltaic industry faces overcapacity and inefficient competition. The State Council has deployed "comprehensive rectification of 'involutionary' competition" to encourage technology upgrading and differentiated development. New technologies such as perovskite and HJT are accelerating the replacement of PERC. Industry leaders consolidate their global competitiveness through overseas factory construction and equipment exports (equipment exports of US$2.79 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%).

The global photovoltaic industry faces multiple challenges: the continued escalation of trade protection policies in Europe and the United States, insufficient power grid absorption capacity in some emerging markets, and intensified price competition caused by industry internal competition.

In response, Chinese photovoltaic companies need to further strengthen technical barriers, such as perovskite stacking modules, integrated photovoltaic storage solutions, etc., while deepening local cooperation, participating in overseas project investment and operation, and promoting the transformation from "product export" to "technology + service" full industry chain output.

In addition, with the continuous release of energy demand in the "global south" countries, China's photovoltaic industry is expected to replicate the "Belt and Road" model in Africa, Southeast Asia and other regions, and use its advantages in technology, capital and experience to help local energy transformation and achieve win-win development.