2025: How will PV Become The Largest Incremental Energy Source In The Next Decade?
Five years ago, CCTV's "Focus Interview" program predicted the photovoltaic industry, "In the next ten years, 70-80% of the world's energy growth will be replaced by new energy. Then carbon neutrality will be achieved before 2060." Now, 2025 has arrived. Looking back, this prediction is not only becoming a reality, but has even exceeded many people's expectations.
1.Technological explosion: from 14% to 33.9%, the acceleration of the photovoltaic efficiency revolution
In 2020, the mainstream conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cells was still between 14% and 15%. Today, just five years later, the world's mainstream photovoltaic technology has increased the efficiency to 24%-25%, and LONGi Green Energy's crystalline silicon-perovskite tandem cells have reached an astonishing 33.9% (NREL certified).
This Leap Means:
The same solar panel can now generate nearly twice as much electricity, greatly improving the competitiveness of PV in the global electricity market.
The cost of photovoltaic electricity continues to decline, and has now dropped to below 0.4CNY/kWh. In the future, the combination of PV + energy storage is expected to continue to reduce costs, making it economical in more markets.
Perovskite technology is accelerating mass production, and it is expected to usher in GW-level production lines after 2027. The photovoltaic industry will completely enter the "high-efficiency era".
2.Policy-driven: China, the United States and Europe are racing, who is leading the global new energy landscape?
(1) China: Distributed PV usher in major changes
In 2025, the "Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation" was issued, stipulating that projects above 6MW must be fully self-used, which means that the future development direction of PV will be more inclined towards small and micro enterprises and regions with strong distributed energy consumption capabilities. In addition, in 2025, China will also focus on promoting:
The development of energy storage will provide stable support for the large-scale access of photovoltaic power to the grid.
The transformation of ultra-high voltage grid will solve the problem of new energy power transmission.
The industry will eliminate outdated production capacity and strengthen technological innovation and market competitiveness.
(2) United States: IRA Act increases domestic PV manufacturing
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) passed in 2022 is injecting huge subsidies into US photovoltaic manufacturing. It is expected that by 2026, the US photovoltaic module production capacity will reach 120GW. Although the risk of policy changes still exists, the US is trying to reduce its dependence on China's photovoltaic supply chain.
(3) EU: PV revival accelerates the withdrawal of coal and nuclear
Driven by the energy crisis, European countries such as Germany are accelerating their transition to PV. Germany plans to completely withdraw from coal and nuclear power by 2030 and fill the energy gap with PV and wind power. The installed capacity of PV in Europe has rebounded, and the growth rate has exceeded expectations.
3.Market expansion: New photovoltaic installed capacity will exceed 565GW in 2025
Market expansion: New photovoltaic installed capacity will exceed 565GW in 2025
In 2025, the global photovoltaic market will usher in the largest expansion in history:
Global new installed capacity is 565GW, including: China 248GW, the United States 44GW, Europe 84GW, and emerging markets such as the Middle East and India will grow beyond expectations (28GW/31GW).
In 2030, photovoltaic power generation will account for 20% of the global electricity supply, and it is expected to reach 37% in 2050.
In the process of market expansion, the application scenarios of the photovoltaic industry are also transitioning from electricity to "all energy":
The "green electricity + green hydrogen" model has emerged, using photovoltaic power to produce hydrogen, promoting the decarbonization process in transportation, industry and other fields.
With the rapid penetration of industrial and commercial photovoltaics, enterprises have begun to adopt self-built photovoltaic systems on a large scale to reduce electricity costs.