2024 Photovoltaic Enterprise Report Card

The report card of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises has come out. Whether it is a pure photovoltaic enterprise or a company with new photovoltaic business, "almost" all of them are in the red.

I put quotation marks around "almost" because there is still one company that has managed to hold on without losses, which is considered a standout.

First, let's take a look at the module shipments of various photovoltaic companies in 2024.

JinkoSolar ranks first with a scale of 90GW~100GW, and it is not known who will rank second between Trina Solar and JA Solar.

JA Solar's module shipments in 2024 will be 75GW~80GW, and Trina Solar's shipments will be 75GW+. The shipments of these two companies are comparable.

LONGi Green Energy fell from the second place in 2023 to the fourth place, which is related to the company's transformation to BC. If the market share of BC fails to develop rapidly in the future, then LONGi will continue to fall. After all, it will undergo a comprehensive transformation to BC in the next one or two years.

On the contrary, if BC becomes the mainstream of the market, Longi may return to the first place.

Tongwei shares still ranked fifth without change, but the shipment volume reached nearly 50GW, an increase of about 65% compared with 2023, which is already very good. If it continues to maintain this growth rate this year, it is estimated that it will impact the top three.

From the planned shipment volume of each company in 2024, only Tongwei shares met expectations. It originally planned to ship 50GW, and other companies did not meet expectations.

Even Jinko Solar, which ranked first, originally planned to ship more than 100GW, and Trina Solar was even further behind, originally planning to ship more than 90GW.

"Jinko, JA, Trina" have been ranked in the top five for nearly ten years, and their status is still quite stable. Longi squeezed Hanwha out in 2019 and began to rank in the top five, and then took the top position in 2020.

Tongwei Co., Ltd. squeezed out Canadian Solar and ranked in the top five in 2023, and it still maintains this position now. From the perspective of the market structure, these five companies will occupy the top five positions for a long time in the future.

50GW shipments is a hurdle. Chint New Energy's shipments in 2024 exceeded 40GW, and it increased by 43% year-on-year. It is possible to cross this hurdle in the future. The gap between other companies is still a bit large.

Let's take a look at the performance of each company in 2024, which is miserable.

First is Longi Green Energy, which has the most losses.

Longi expects to lose CNY8.2 billion to 8.8 billion in 2024, which means that the loss in the fourth quarter is at least CNY1.7 billion, which is a larger loss than the third quarter, but better than the first half of the year.

In fact, Longi's loss is better than expected. It was originally expected to lose tens of billions, because it is a common practice to make large-scale provisions at the end of the year.

There are only two reasons why photovoltaic companies make provisions. The first is that the operating rate is very low, and the production line is idle, so provisions are naturally required. The second is that due to technology iteration or replacement, some equipment will be eliminated and provisions are also required.

Longi has both of these reasons, and its BC battery production capacity will reach 70GW in 2025, and all will be switched to BC products in 2026.

So the specific loss ratio of TOPCon production line in the process of TOPCon conversion to BC is unknown to the outside world.

However, according to the communication of professionals in the industry, this loss is not small, so Longi's provision is "optimized", and there should be a large scale of provision in 2025.

In addition, Longi also holds shares in silicon material companies. The entire photovoltaic industry chain is losing money, and silicon material companies are of course also miserable, so investment losses are inevitable.

Speaking of silicon materials, it is the turn of Tongwei Co., Ltd., a big loss-maker.

Tongwei expects to lose CNY7 billion to 7.5 billion in 2024, which is only a few hundred million less than Longi, so it is also a big loss-maker.

In fact, for Tongwei, the greater the industry loss, the more beneficial it is to him.

Because his production capacity is too large, it is impossible to maintain such a low operating rate. The longer the industry capacity clearance time is, the more disadvantageous it is to him, and the greater the industry loss, the better it is for capacity clearance.

In 2024, the photovoltaic industry has been cleared, and a group of companies that the public is not very familiar with have been eliminated.

For example, "Lingda Shares", which entered the market with a high profile before, claimed to invest CNY 10 billion TOPCon production line at that time, but it stopped just like that, and the original PERC production line was also stopped.

There are a large number of newcomers like Lingda Shares, such as Shuangliang Energy Saving, Hanergy, Shanmei International, East China Heavy Machinery, Jiaojian, etc., at least dozens of them, and now they are all dragged down by photovoltaics.

Some of these later entrants into the photovoltaic industry have a strong foundation, and some have a weak foundation. Those with a strong foundation may be able to hold on, and those with a weak foundation are probably regretting it.

Those who regret it will be the second batch to be cleared, because the first batch has been eliminated in 2024.

The greater the loss in the industry, the faster the liquidation speed will be, and the happier Tongwei will be.

Tongwei's debt is too high, and he needs to end this nightmare as soon as possible.

Five years ago, Tongwei had only more than 30 billion in debt, but now it is as high as CNY136.6 billion. Even if the contractual liabilities and deferred income tax liabilities are deducted, it will exceed CNY130 billion.

Now he can still optimize debt, so that short-term loans are only CNY1.9 billion, and transfer as much as possible to long-term loans, but interest must be paid. The interest expenses in the third quarter report exceeded CNY1.5 billion. If it continues, it will go to CNY2 billion.

Nearly CNY2 billion in interest expenses, these are all profits that are swallowed up.

CNY80 billion in fixed assets, CNY20 billion in projects under construction, and the annual depreciation and provision of CNY100 billion in the future will also swallow up a large amount of profits.

So Tongwei Co., Ltd. is the most anxious in the entire photovoltaic industry, and he can't wait.

Moreover, the silicon material link is the most troublesome part of the industrial chain, because the production capacity of Tongwei alone will reach 70% of the entire industry's demand. What should other giants do?

Now Trina Solar and JA Solar have not released their performance forecasts. The big brother JinkoSolar is worthy of being the big brother and is actually making money.

JinkoSolar's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 is CNY 80 million to 120 million. It also made CNY 7.4 billion in 2023, but now it is only 80 million.

This 80 million is probably "optimized". With such a large scale, it is too easy to adjust the profit of tens of millions.

Maybe they think that they can't let the photovoltaic companies be wiped out. Trina Solar and JA Solar must also be losing money. It's just a matter of how much they lose.

Trina Solar's third quarter report has already lost CNY 850 million, and JA Solar's third quarter report has also lost nearly CNY 500 million. With the module prices in the fourth quarter, there is no reason not to lose money.

JinkoSolar is the only photovoltaic giant that has not suffered losses in the past ten years, not in any quarter.

2024 also set a record of the lowest profit in nearly ten years, but even the lowest profit is still profit, no matter whether it is adjusted or not.

Even if it is really adjusted, only JinkoSolar has the basis for adjustment, because it has already earned CNY1.2 billion in the third quarter report.

Anyway, JinkoSolar has saved a bit of face for the photovoltaic industry, give it a thumbs up!

As for those ranked after the fifth place in photovoltaics, I won't talk about them, such as Risen Energy, Hongyuan Green Energy, etc., which are also loss-making, there is nothing to say.

Finally, for the photovoltaic industry, the editor believes that losses are a good thing. How can there be no losses? How can the production capacity be reduced? Losses are in line with the law, and huge losses can see the dawn.

The asset impairment of these photovoltaic companies in 2024 was too stingy. In 2025, they might as well take a bigger step. Anyway, they are all well-known things, and there is no need to hide them.

Within the scope of financial tolerance, make impairment provisions and then go into battle lightly. If it exceeds the scope of financial tolerance, exit when it should, and go bankrupt when it should go bankrupt.