Africa On Track To Install A Record 17 GW Of Solar in 2026, Up 45% Year On Year

Published: October 8, 2026 | Data sources: Ember, African Tech Futures Lab

Key Takeaways

Record 17 GW: Africa is expected to install about 17 GW of solar in 2026, up 45% year on year and the third consecutive record year.

Broad-based growth: 36 of Africa's 54 countries are expected to set annual installation records, and 19 countries have grown by more than 100% year on year.

Six gigawatt-scale markets: South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Algeria and Morocco.

Meaningful power supply: The solar added in 2026 should generate about 23 TWh a year, roughly equal to the average annual rise in Africa's electricity demand over the past decade.

Local manufacturing quadruples: Panel manufacturing capacity is projected to reach about 3.5 GW in 2026, up from about 0.8 GW in 2025, though much of it targets export markets.
 

According to analysis published in August 2026 by energy think tank Ember with the African Tech Futures Lab, Africa is set to add about 17 GW of solar capacity in 2026. That equals roughly 47 MW installed every day, or about 100,000 solar panels a day.
 

South Africa accounted for 52% of Africa's solar imports in 2023. By June 2026 that share had fallen to 20%. Ember expects South Africa to represent less than a fifth of African installations in 2026, the first time that has happened since 2019, as other markets accelerate.

Projected 2026 installations in gigawatt-scale markets:

Several markets are growing very fast. Year-on-year growth is estimated at 544% in the DRC, 282% in Zimbabwe, 176% in Egypt and 117% in Zambia. Ten countries will each add at least 1 GW of solar between 2023 and 2026. In Senegal, solar added over that period is equivalent to almost 80% of its entire 2023 grid capacity.
 

Chinese solar panel exports to Africa reached about 23 GW in the 12 months to June 2026, up 53% on the previous 12 months and worth about $2.4 billion. That puts Africa on a par with the Middle East (23 GW) and Latin America (25 GW) as an export destination.

Ember's method rests on a calibration study of the EU and five other markets covering 368 GW of installations. It found that about 73% of reported Chinese panel exports are installed, with an average lag of about six months. This allows a full-year 2026 estimate to be made already. About 94% of panels installed in Africa are imported from China; about 6% are made locally.
 

Ember estimates Africa installed about 26 GW of solar between 2023 and 2025, of which about 20 GW (roughly 75%) was distributed solar, mostly rooftop systems. Even in Egypt, which has large utility-scale plants, distributed solar is estimated at 43% of solar growth.

Commercial and industrial customers are the main adopters. In most African markets they account for at least 80% of distributed capacity, with payback periods as short as two to five years.
 

Because so many systems are installed informally, official figures lag well behind market reality.
 

Ember could find official solar capacity data for only 36 of 54 countries, and only 14 of those covered 2025. Just three countries (South Africa, Tunisia and Tanzania) publish solar data quarterly or more often. The picture is starting to improve: at least 15 African countries have registration and permitting systems in development or in force, and South Africa's digital platform for small-scale embedded generation is now used by more than 55 municipal utilities.
 

Business registrations point the same way. In Nigeria, 370 new solar companies registered in 2025, almost seven times the 56 registered in 2019.
 

Assuming a conservative 15% capacity factor, the 17 GW installed in 2026 would generate about 23 TWh a year. That is about 2.3% of Africa's 2024 electricity generation of 982 TWh, slightly above the 2.2% average annual demand growth recorded from 2014 to 2024. In 28 of 54 countries, new solar generation will exceed historic demand growth.
 

The effect is largest in small power systems. In ten countries, including Sierra Leone (about 97%), Togo (24%), Somalia (21%), Djibouti (21%) and the DRC (14%), 2026's new solar will add more than 10% to annual grid generation.
 

Solar is also changing diesel economics. Ember estimates that generating the same electricity as the panels Africa imported from China in the past year would cost about $2.4 billion in diesel every three months. Since 2024, Africa has also imported more dollars' worth of batteries than solar panels from China, led by Nigeria and the DRC.
 

New plants in Egypt and Tanzania are aimed mainly at the US market. Ember notes that manufacturing data is limited, so these figures carry more uncertainty than installation estimates. New US tariffs on solar cells and panels, due to take effect on December 1, 2026, could reduce export opportunities and push more African-made panels toward domestic demand.
 

The IEA estimates that Africa needs about $15 billion a year to achieve universal electricity access, compared with less than $2.5 billion committed for new connections in sub-Saharan Africa in 2023. Initiatives such as Mission 300, which aims to connect 300 million people in Africa to electricity by 2030, are advancing access, while privately financed distributed solar is adding supply alongside them. Ember says the policy challenge now is to measure and plan for this rapidly growing capacity rather than leave it outside national energy strategies.
 

How much solar will Africa install in 2026?

According to Ember, about 17 GW, up 45% on 2025 and the third consecutive annual record.

Which African countries have the largest solar markets?

In 2026, South Africa (3.3 GW), Egypt (2.0 GW), Nigeria and the DRC (1.7 GW each), Algeria (1.4 GW) and Morocco (1.0 GW).

Why do official statistics understate solar growth?

Much of the growth is distributed rooftop solar installed informally. Only 36 of 54 countries report official solar capacity, and only three publish it quarterly or more often.

Where do Africa's solar panels come from?

About 94% are imported from China; about 6% are manufactured in Africa.

Is the 17 GW figure measured or estimated?

It is an estimate. Ember derives it from Chinese customs export data, adjusted for installation rates and a six-month lag.

Ember and African Tech Futures Lab, "The take-off in African solar that official statistics can't yet see," August 26, 2026 (ember-energy.org).

Chinese customs export data, as compiled by Ember.

IEA, IRENA and Global Energy Monitor statistics, as cited by Ember.

Figures for 2026 are estimates by Ember and do not constitute investment advice.