2025 Photovoltaic Market Industry Report And Analysis

(1) International Energy Agency (IEA) "Electricity Report 2025"

Key point:
The growth rate of global electricity demand hit a ten-year high, with an average annual growth of 4% expected from 2025 to 2027, of which solar photovoltaic will contribute 50% of the new electricity demand. The proportion of photovoltaic power generation in China, the United States and India will exceed 10%, and the EU photovoltaic installed capacity has surpassed coal to become the second largest power source.

Key data:

China's electricity consumption will increase by 7% in 2024, and photovoltaic module exports will reach 211.7GW (year-on-year +37.9%), but domestic new installations will decline year-on-year due to grid connection restrictions.

The cost of photovoltaic installation in the United States has exceeded US$0.35/W due to tariffs. An average household will have to spend an additional US$23,000 to install a 10kW system, which will directly drag down its "carbon-free electricity by 2035" goal.

Policy impact: The EU Net Zero Industrial Law requires that domestic photovoltaic production capacity account for 40% by 2030, but currently 97% of components are imported from China. Carbon tariffs (400kg CO₂/kW) and the minimum import price (0.18 euros/W) have pushed up the export cost of Chinese components to Europe by 12%.

(2) Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) "Photovoltaic Market Outlook 2025"

Installation forecast: Global new photovoltaic installations are expected to reach 698GW (optimistic scenario 730GW), with China contributing 302GW (centralized 177GW + distributed 125GW), the United States 55GW, India 39GW, and emerging markets such as the Middle East and Africa GW-level countries increased to 40.

Technology trends: N-type battery market share will reach 79%, silver consumption will drop from 15mg/W to 8mg/W, TOPCon battery mass production efficiency will reach 25.5%, and HJT module efficiency will exceed 26.2%.

Supply chain risks: The four Southeast Asian countries account for 77% of the US photovoltaic imports, but the US has imposed tariffs of up to 3521% on them, forcing companies such as Longi and Jinko to accelerate the transfer of production capacity to Indonesia and Mexico. The 5GW factory jointly established by Longi and Invenergy has been put into production.

(1) China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) "2024-2025 Industry Roadmap"

Capacity and technology:

In 2024, polysilicon production will reach 1.82 million tons (year-on-year +23.6%), N-type silicon wafer market share will reach 72.5%, TOPCon battery efficiency will reach 25.4%, HJT battery efficiency will reach 25.6%, and perovskite module efficiency will exceed 18%.

In 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to be 215-255GW, with distributed photovoltaic accounting for more than 45%, but the consumption bottleneck has caused the abandonment rate in the northwest region to rebound to 4.2%.

Policy-driven:
The National Energy Administration requires that non-fossil energy account for 20% by 2025. The "Thousands of Towns and Villages Bathing in Light Action" promotes 56 county pilots, and Guangdong and Jiangsu simplify the restrictions on industrial and commercial projects.

(2) Snowball "2025 China Photovoltaic Industry Research Report"

Market differentiation:
Module prices fell below 0.7 yuan/W, polysilicon inventory rose to 35,000 tons, but N-type module prices rose against the trend, and the landed price of TOPCon in Europe reached 0.099 euros/W (about 0.102 US dollars).

Enterprise transformation:
Leading enterprises such as Longi and Tongwei are expected to lose more than 24 billion yuan in 2024, the industry will lay off more than 50,000 employees, small and medium-sized enterprises will accelerate their exit, and the market share of CR5 modules will exceed 60%.

Overseas strategy:
Chinese companies have shifted from "global selling" to "global manufacturing". JA Solar and JinkoSolar have deployed 6GW of battery + 3GW of module production capacity in the Middle East to avoid trade barriers between Europe and the United States.

(1) Acceleration of mass production of perovskite batteries

Production line progress:
GCL-Poly Optoelectronics' first 100MW production line in the world is operating stably, with a module efficiency of 18.2%; Jidian Photovoltaic's gigawatt-level production line has been put into production, and its weak light power generation capacity is 10% higher than that of crystalline silicon; GCL-Poly Optoelectronics and JEC's equipment orders account for 35% of the global planned production capacity.

Technical bottleneck:
Laboratory efficiency has exceeded 30%, but stability still needs to be improved. Perovskite/crystalline silicon stacking technology is expected to be mass-produced in 2030, driving the cost per kilowatt-hour to drop by another 30%.

(2) N-type technology dominates the market

TOPCon and HJT:
Risen Energy's HJT module mass production efficiency is 26.2%, and silver consumption has dropped to 5mg/W; JinkoSolar's TOPCon battery mass production efficiency is 25.5%, and the production capacity is planned to be 50GW.

Cost reduction path:
N-type battery silver consumption has dropped from 15mg/W to 8mg/W, copper electroplating and silver-clad copper technology have reduced metallization costs by 30%, and the price premium of N-type modules has narrowed to 0.05 yuan/W compared to P-type.

(1) Europe: Localization and carbon tariff game

Policy impact: The EU's "European Solar Charter" forces public procurement to give priority to local components and sets a minimum import price (monofacial components ≥ 0.18 euros/W), increasing the cost of Chinese component exports to Europe by 12%.

Market demand: Germany will have 18.5-20.5GW of new installed capacity in 2025, accounting for 23% of Europe; Turkey and Morocco's demand is growing rapidly, but grid absorption problems have led to frequent negative electricity prices.

(2) The United States: Tariffs force capacity transfer

Supply chain crisis: 77% of the production capacity of the four Southeast Asian countries is affected by tariffs. The United States has zero domestic silicon wafer production capacity and only 2GW of battery production capacity. It relies on Chinese polysilicon imports (accounting for 80% of the world), causing component costs to soar to US$0.45/W.

Corporate response: Longi and Trina are accelerating the transfer of production capacity to Indonesia and Mexico. JinkoSolar has a 5GW factory in Indonesia, and some inventory can meet demand in the short term.

(3) Middle East and Africa: Emerging Markets Rise

Saudi Arabia: Through the National Renewable Energy Program (NREP), 50% of electricity is driven by renewable energy. The Zarraf 1.5GW project attracts JinkoSolar and Trina Solar to compete.

South Africa: Distributed photovoltaic power generation benefits from policy support, with 7-11GW of new installed capacity in 2025, and the cost per kilowatt-hour is less than 1/3 of diesel power generation.

(1) Short-term risks

Trade barriers: US tariffs have led to a 12% reduction in global photovoltaic installed capacity, and EU carbon tariffs have increased cost pressure on Chinese companies.

Overcapacity: In 2024, global polysilicon production capacity will increase by 50%, but demand will only increase by 20%, and prices will plummet by 60%. The industry will enter the stage of "expansion of high-quality production capacity + clearance of backward production capacity".

(2) Long-term trend

Technology iteration: By 2030, the efficiency of perovskite/crystalline silicon stacked cells is expected to reach 35%, and the market share of N-type cells will exceed 90%, driving the cost of electricity down to US$0.03/kWh.

Global layout: The market contribution rate of Chinese companies in the "Belt and Road" has increased to 35%, and the installed capacity in the Middle East and Africa has increased from 5% to 15%, forming a "local manufacturing + regional distribution" model.

It is recommended to obtain the full report through the official website of IEA, BNEF, CPIA or industry databases (such as PV InfoLink, SolarPower Europe), or pay attention to the quarterly financial reports and strategic press conferences of leading companies such as Longi and Jinko to obtain real-time market dynamics.