Analysis of global photovoltaic market demand in 2024-2025
Outlook for global photovoltaic market demand
In 2024, the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to be 520GW, of which the Chinese market is expected to be 240GW, and overseas markets account for about half. In 2025, the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to increase by about 10% to 560GW, showing the strong stability of market demand. In 2024, the regional differences in the photovoltaic market are obvious. Nearly 60% of the photovoltaic installed capacity in the Chinese market is ground-based power stations, while other regions in Asia-Pacific, such as Japan, have new changes. The European market is mainly distributed, accounting for more than 60%, while the Americas and emerging markets have new demands for ground-based power stations, hydrogen energy and BIPV applications.
Analysis Of Chinese Market Demand
In the first half of 2024, the photovoltaic installed capacity in the Chinese market maintained a steady growth, and the cumulative grid-connected installed capacity reached 713GW, exceeding the total of the past four years. It is expected that in the next few years, the demand in the Chinese market will remain stable, and the installed capacity will fluctuate in the range of more than 200GW. The demand pattern of the Chinese market in 2024 will be dominated by ground power stations, with stable growth in industrial and commercial distributed power, while household photovoltaics will face pressure. The construction of UHV lines will promote new installed capacity, and it is expected that industrial and commercial distributed power will become the main growth driver in the next few years.
Analysis Of Demand In The Asia-pacific Market
The Indian market has performed outstandingly in the Asia-Pacific region, and the photovoltaic grid-connected capacity is expected to reach 25-26GW in 2024, showing strong growth potential. The OECD Asia-Pacific market (Japan, South Korea, and Australia) has a stable installed capacity of about 15-16GW per year, and the Southeast Asian market is growing rapidly. Vietnam has grown rapidly due to the FIT policy. In the future, markets such as the Philippines and Indonesia have growth potential due to increased electricity demand. Overall, the Southeast Asian market faces the challenges of rapid growth in electricity demand and weak grid structure.
Analysis Of European Market Demand
The European market is positive about new energy, and the grid-connected photovoltaic installed capacity is estimated to be close to 100GW in 2024. Distributed demand accounts for a high proportion, and the demand for ground power stations is expected to be released due to the decline in system prices. The market demand in Ukraine and Turkey is stable, and the fluctuation of electricity prices has limited stimulation to the market. The European market is expected to grow by 36% in 2024, mainly benefiting from the release of demand for ground power stations and the decline in component prices. The growth rate is expected to slow down to 12% in 2025, but the overall market space is still large.
Analysis Of North American Market Demand
The US market is affected by Southeast Asian anti-dumping duties and the general election. The installed capacity is expected to be 47GW in 2024, and may face downward pressure in 2025. Tax policies and election results will affect future new energy policies and market demand. The distributed demand in the US market is greatly affected by financial costs, and the interest rate cut channel may bring financing benefits and stimulate market demand. It is expected that the installed capacity will drop slightly to 44GW in 2025.
Analysis Of The Demand In The Middle East Market
The installed capacity of the Middle East market is expected to double to 16GW in 2024. The demand for ground-based power stations in Saudi Arabia and UAE is rapidly released. It is expected that the market demand will remain stable in 2025, and some large projects will be completed in 2024. Saudi Arabia's installed capacity is expected to be 7GW in 2024, a significant increase from 2023. The installed capacity in 2025 is expected to fall slightly to 6.5GW.
Analysis Of Emerging Market Demand
The demand for photovoltaic power is growing rapidly in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and is expected to grow by 30% to 40% in 2024. Market demand is stimulated by the decline in system prices, and the growth rate may slow down in the future, but the overall volume will increase. The growth in photovoltaic demand in these markets is mainly due to the increase in electricity demand and photovoltaic power as an economically viable electricity solution. Despite economic conditions and risks, photovoltaic power is still an effective way to meet electricity demand.
