What impact does the US PV policy have on the global PV market?

The US PV policy is reshaping the global PV market through the triple mechanism of industrial subsidies, trade barriers and technical standards. Its influence penetrates into core areas such as supply chain reconstruction, technology route selection, and market competition rules. The following is an analysis from six dimensions:

Southeast Asian Production Capacity Setbacks And Eastward Shift Of Production Capacity

US tariff impact: The highest tariff of 3521% was imposed on PV modules in four Southeast Asian countries (Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia), resulting in 80% of the production capacity of Chinese companies in Southeast Asia stagnating. LONGi, Jinko and other companies started the construction of new factories in Indonesia within 72 hours, using local zero tariffs and quartz sand resources, and the overall cost dropped by 15%.

The rise of the Middle East and Latin America: Trina Solar invested in 50,000 tons of silicon materials + 30GW silicon wafer production capacity in the UAE, and JA Solar planned a 6GW battery cell project in Oman. The Middle East has become a new production capacity hub. Turkey has attracted Chint New Energy to build a TOPCon battery factory with its 24% tariff advantage, becoming a springboard for exports to the United States.

U.S. domestic production capacity is inflated and structurally short

Module overcapacity: The United States plans to reach 120GW of module capacity in 2026 (domestic demand is only 40GW), but silicon materials and silicon wafers rely on imports, and the battery capacity gap reaches 37GW. Companies such as First Solar rely on government subsidies to maintain operations, and 79% of net profit in the first quarter of 2024 came from subsidies.

Cost disadvantages are prominent: The cost of domestic components in the United States is $0.35/W (China's $0.18/W), even with a 30% ITC subsidy, it is still 30% higher than the production capacity of Chinese companies in Southeast Asia.

Tariff Barrier Escalation And Trade Transfer

Technology blockade against China: The tariff on polysilicon and silicon wafers has been raised from 30% to 50%, which directly impacts China's exports to the United States. In January and February 2025, China's module exports to the United States fell by 24% year-on-year, turning to markets such as Europe (share rose to 72%) and Africa (up 44%).

Regional trade alliances: RCEP and China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 strengthen regional supply chains, Vietnam bypasses US tariffs through the China-Laos Railway PV train, and Malaysia's East Coast Railway reaches Chongqing in 7 days.

Global "carbon Tariff" Linkage Effect

EU CBAM impact: From 2026, a CO₂ tax of 75 euros/ton will be imposed on PV modules, forcing Chinese companies to establish a European carbon footprint certification system. Trina Solar's Spanish zero-carbon PV park has reduced its carbon emission intensity to 35g/kWh through the "module + energy storage + intelligent management" model.

India's "double standard": a 40% tariff on imported modules, but allows Chinese cells to be assembled locally. In January and February 2025, China's module exports to India accounted for 36% of its imports.

"china-us Competition" In Perovskite Technology

China's mass production breakthrough: Jidian PV's GW-level production line was put into production, with a module efficiency of 16.1%, and the goal is to increase to 20% in 2025. GCL-Poly and Xianna Optoelectronics will add 4GW of production capacity in 2025, and the laboratory efficiency of perovskite-crystalline silicon stacked cells will exceed 33.7%.

US policy tilt: The Department of Energy allocated US$200 million to support the mass production of perovskites, and Tesla Cybertruck solar accessories entered the testing phase. However, US companies rely on imported Chinese equipment (90% of string welding machines come from China), and the commercialization of technology lags behind.

"cost Crushing" Of Crystalline Silicon Technology

TOPCon and HJT dominance: LONGi and Jinko's TOPCon battery mass production efficiency exceeds 26.5%, and silver-free technology reduces costs by 15%. Q CELLS of the United States built a factory in Georgia, but the production was delayed due to its dependence on Chinese equipment.

Thinning and material substitution: China's silicon wafer thickness has dropped to below 130μm, the cost of polysilicon has been reduced to 34 yuan/kg (60 yuan/kg in the United States), and 90% of the global production capacity of high-purity quartz sand is locked in China.

"policy Drive" And "cost Backlash" In The Us Market

Installation volume decline: EIA predicts that the new installed capacity of US PV power will drop to 32.5GW in 2025 (originally planned to be 51.5GW), the price of components will rise by 20% due to tariffs, and the cost of a 10kW system will increase by 23,000 US dollars.

Energy storage supporting bottleneck: California's summer PV output exceeds demand by 40%, and the forced abandonment rate reaches 15%, and the local battery production capacity only meets 15% of demand.

"opportunity Window" For Emerging Markets

European household explosion: Germany subsidizes 4,000 euros per household, household PV installations will increase by 65% ​​in 2024, and Chinese components will account for 72% of the European market.

Africa and Latin America rise: South Africa and Algeria component imports increased by 63%, Brazil and Chile became the main markets in the Americas, and China's exports to Africa increased by 44% year-on-year in January-February.

Carbon Footprint Management Becomes A Competitive Threshold

Apple and Google supply chain requirements: Supplier PV projects must use low-carbon electricity (≤50g CO₂/kWh), and Chinese companies will reduce carbon intensity to 35g/kWh through hydropower in Yunnan and Sichuan.

EU "battery passport" system: PV components are required to disclose carbon emissions throughout their life cycle from 2026, and Longi's vegetation coverage rate in the Atacama Desert project in Chile has increased by 20%.

The "reverse Effect" Of The Recycling System

The EU WEEE directive has been upgraded: the module recycling rate will be forced to reach 85% in 2026, and companies will be required to pay a recycling deposit of US$2/㎡. China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have piloted PV recycling industrial parks, with the goal of a recycling rate of over 90% in 2030.

Technical path selection: Perovskite modules face recycling challenges due to material toxicity (lead), and crystalline silicon modules have a leading recycling technology maturity.

Subsidy Decline And Policy Reversals

US ITC controversy: Republicans propose to cancel PV subsidies within five years, and SEIA estimates that it will lead to a 60% reduction in installed capacity in 2030 and a loss of 1.2 million jobs.

EU policy swings: REPowerEU's goal is to increase PV installed capacity from 600GW to 1TW, but carbon tariffs may weaken competitiveness, and new installed capacity in Europe may remain flat in 2025.

"betting Risks" Of Technology Routes

Controversy over the stability of perovskite: The laboratory life span exceeds 5,000 hours (equivalent to 10 years outdoors), but the weather resistance test of mass-produced components only reaches 3,000 hours, and the industry is waiting for IEC 61215-2 certification.

Layering technology bottleneck: The mass production cost of perovskite-crystalline silicon laminated cells needs to be reduced to less than US$0.1/W, which is still higher than crystalline silicon cells.

The US PV policy is triggering a deep reconstruction of the global PV industry through industrial subsidies to shape local advantages, tariff barriers to cut supply chains, and technical standards to build moats:

Supply chain: From "China-led" to "Indonesia-Middle East-Mexico" triangular layout;

Technology: Crystalline silicon and perovskite "dual track parallel", China maintains a leading position in mass production efficiency and cost;

Market: European and American demand is driven by policies but growth is limited, and Asia, Africa and Latin America have become the core of incremental growth;

Rules: Carbon tariffs, recycling standards, and localization requirements reshape the logic of competition.

For investors, they need to pay attention to technology reserves (such as the progress of mass production of perovskite), regional compliance capabilities (carbon footprint management) and scene integration advantages (BIPV, agricultural PV complementarity), while being alert to policy fluctuations and geopolitical risks. The global PV industry is moving from "scale expansion" to a new stage of "quality competition", and the game between policy-driven and market rules will dominate the industry landscape for a long time.